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中国氢能汽车产业发展战略研究报告01
更新时间:2019-01-29 浏览数:
新能源汽车行业资讯       2019-01-29

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【研究机构】清华大学汽车产业与技术战略研究院

【资助单位】壳牌氢能

【关键词】氢能、燃料电池、加氢站、区域优势

【摘要】

1、氢能作为高效的多用途能源,在中国能源市场的应用场景中优势突出,氢能经济发展逐渐成为中国社会关注焦点

2、中国氢能产业发展具备政策及市场支撑,优势区域有望率先进入区域性氢能社会

3、建议将氢能作为能源管理而非危化品处理,进一步明确氢能产业的国家主管部门

4、氢能产业链相关国家标准及规范应尽快建立,并与国际标准协调完善,以期尽早释放中国氢能发展潜力

5、燃料电池车是氢能应用的主要场景,加氢站建设是实现燃料电池车发展的必要条件加氢站建设应结合产业发展进行科学布局

氢能与燃料电池车产业发展协同性较强

   中国新能源车汽车产业发展目前仍以政策驱动为主,在国家产业政策引导下,新能源汽车市场占比逐渐提高并最终形成市场驱动。

纯电汽车(BEV)、燃料电池车(FCV)各自优劣势特点明显,因此在发展策略上,BEV与FCV存在明显差异,但互为补充。




   中国地域广阔,各地区在经济环境、能源环境、政策环境等方面存在差异,因此中国氢能产业发展存在明显的区域性特点,很难实现全国性的氢能社会,但在具备氢源优势、基础设施规划明确、政策支持力度大等要素的部分区域实现区域性氢能社会的可能性更大。




   氢燃料电池车未来将成为氢能应用、推动氢能产业发展的主要动因之一。作为新能源汽车领域的后起之秀,燃料电池车凭借高效、清洁、续驶里程长、加氢快速、适应性强等特点得到市场广泛关注,同时也将加速燃料电池车的商业化进程。

   氢能产业与燃料电池车的发展存在协同性,加氢站是两者之间的关键纽带,因此加氢站的建设运营显得尤为重要,区位选择应结合氢源、市场需求情况、政府支持力度等区域特点综合分析。

   燃料电池车的发展应用取决于氢能社会的实现程度,否则燃料电池车只能是无本之木,燃料电池车的发展带来氢气需求,将促进氢能产业加速发展。但中国需进一步明确氢能产业的国家主管部门,氢能产业发展应立足能源而非危险化学品的管理思路,以期与现行国际法规及标准相协调。




政府部门推动+企业投资热情 → 燃料电池车热点再起

   中国氢能-燃料电池车的发展动因是多方面的,国务院、发改委制定氢能-燃料电池车产业发展顶层设计,科技部推动技术研发,工信部跟进落地实施产业化发展;乘用车双积分政策叠加即将到来的商用车双积分政策,促使新能源产业加速发展;燃料电池车(FCV)较纯电动车(BEV)在重型商用车领域更具适用性;各地政府企业积极响应布局氢能-燃料电池车产业,预计2025年中国将迎来产业发展拐点。




中国将从燃料电池商用车起步,市场前景广阔

中国燃料电池车具备市场及政策支撑,在政府主导下,有望在商用车领域首先形成突破,2018年中国商用车产量已达1527辆。




中国燃料电池汽车市场在2030年左右将从政策主导向市场主导转型

在氢能及燃料电池产业发展初期,基础设施不完善、成本高昂及关键技术将成为市场化推广的阻碍,发展有赖于政策推动;随着产业链及基础设施的完善,燃料电池乘用车逐步进入市场,推动燃料电池车产业进入商业化可持续发展阶段。 




中国加氢站布局区域研究

中国区域氢能社会的形成应具备政府政策的推动、氢源优势、地方的产业基础、龙头企业带动 、经济环境良好、市场需求等要素,因此在进行加氢站的区域选择时应充分考虑这些要求。






综合区域氢能社会形成各要素分析,长三角、珠三角及北京-张家口地区未来率先进入区域氢能社会的可能性较大,可率先进行加氢站布局。

区位布局是加氢站建设运营的关键

对加氢站建设运营而言,在关键地区进行功能区位的选择与运营效果直接相关,且至关重要。根据区域氢能-燃料电池车应用特点,在不同的发展阶段应选择不同的布局地点。

早期建议以物流集散地、公交场站为主,中期围绕高速区域、长途汽车站、码头布局,后期可能实现氢能社会城市广泛布局。 




加氢站运营是业务落地、实现商业目标的直接体现,合作模式是必要的:充分利用各自资源,解决加氢站发展面临的土地、资金、技术、运营、法规、补贴等问题。 




中国加氢站建设应以撬装式为主,固定式加氢站为辅

加氢站建设方式主要分为三种:固定式加氢站、撬装式加氢站、临时加氢装置,加氢站技术路线应结合不同应用场景特点,选择不同加氢站建设模式。




中国加氢站建设初期应以撬装式加氢站为主,配以外供氢(高压气态存储),在具备可再生能源自制氢的发达地区可适当布局固定式加氢站,例如:风电能源充足的张家口地区。




高压气态储氢是目前商业应用的主要方式,液氢加氢站是实现氢基础设施快速推广的可行模式,液氢可成为最具成本效益的氢气储运路线。

中国氢能汽车产业发展战略研究总结

1、国家政策推动+产业发展,燃料电池汽车有望在2025年迎来发展拐点,并在2030年左右开始进入商业化阶段

2、中国燃料电池汽车会从商用车起步,最终会进入到乘用车领域

3、中国氢能社会目标首先会从局部地区实现

4、中国氢能标准体系建设仍有极大发展空间,企业应积极参与标准体系构建,并重点关注氢气储运、安全及检测标准

5、加氢站氢气储存方式:高压气态存储→ 低温液态存储

6、加氢站应结合制氢、储氢和运氢的区域特点选择不同的建站模式:初期以撬装式气态加氢站为主;固定式自制氢加氢站为辅

7、加氢站建设区位选择应有侧重点,近期→运营企业集中加氢地区(物流中转+公交线路);中期→运营路线重点布局(高速公路、长途汽车站);长期→实现氢能社会城市广泛布局


【英文版】China’s Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Industry Development Strategies

[Research institution] Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute (TASRI)

[Sponsor] Shell Hydrogen

[Key words] hydrogen, fuel cells, hydrogen refueling stations, regional advantages

[Abstract]

1. Hydrogen, as efficient and versatile energy, shows remarkable advantages in the application scenarios in China’s energy market. Hydrogen economy development has gradually become the social focus of China

2. The development of China’s hydrogen industry is supported by policies and the market, and areas with favorable factors are expected to build a regional hydrogen society in the first instance

3. It is suggested that hydrogen should be incorporated into fuel for transport instead of hazardous chemical substances. It is necessary for China to further define the national regulatory departments for the hydrogen mobility industry 

4. The national standards and regulations for the hydrogen industry should be developed in harmony with the prevailing global standards with the aim to unleash China's potential for hydrogen in transport; FCV serves as a major scenario for the application of hydrogen; the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is an essential requirement for FCV development

5. Construction of hydrogen refueling stations requires thoughtful deployment in coordination with the industry development

Hydrogen and FCV Industry Development: Strong Coordination

China’s NEV industry development is still driven by policies at present. Guided by the national industry policies, NEVs will occupy greater market presence, and the industry will be finally driven by the market.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have their own advantages. Whilst there exist substantial differences in the development strategies for BEVs and FCVs, they are mutually complementary.


Since China has a vast territory, plus differences in local economic, policy and energy environments, China’s hydrogen energy industry development features regional characteristics. It is therefore difficult to lead the whole country into a hydrogen society. However, those areas with favorable factors such as advantageous hydrogen sources, clear infrastructure planning and strong policy support, are more likely to create a hydrogen society.


Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will become one of the main drivers of hydrogen applications and the hydrogen industry development in the future. Thanks to high efficiency, cleanliness, long electric range, fast refueling, strong adaptability and other characteristics, FCVs, as a rising star in NEV segment, have gained widespread attention in the market, which will also accelerate the commercialization of FCVs.

There is a synergy between the hydrogen energy industry and FCV development. Hydrogen refueling stations serve as the key link between the two. Therefore, the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations are particularly important. In terms of selecting the location for hydrogen refueling stations, it is advised to make a comprehensive analysis of the regional characteristics, such as the hydrogen source, market demands and local government’s support.

Development and application of FCVs depend on the development of a hydrogen society. Otherwise, FCVs will be like “a tree without the root”. FCV development will generate hydrogen demand, which will potentially accelerate hydrogen industry development. However, it is necessary for China to further define the national regulatory department for the hydrogen industry, with the aim to harmonize with prevailing global standards. These regulations should facilitate the use of hydrogen, which should be incorporated into energy and fuel use instead of hazardous chemical substances.


Promoted by the government departments + enterprises’ enthusiasm in investment → Hot topics of FCVs rise again

China’s FCV development drivers are various: 1. The State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have jointly formulated the top-level design of the FCV industry; the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) promotes R&D of technologies; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) follows up to implement the industrialization development; 2. CAFC & NEV dual credits requirements for passenger cars, plus with the upcoming dual credits requirements for commercial vehicles will accelerate the development of the NEV industry; 3. FCVs are more applicable to heavy-duty commercial vehicles than BEVs; 4. Local governments and enterprises make active response to deploy the FCV industry. It is expected that China’s FCV industry will usher in a turning point for fast development by 2025.


China Will Start From Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicles With Broad Market Prospects

China’s FCVs are supported by the market and policies. With the government playing a leading role, China’s FCVs are expected to make breakthrough in the commercial vehicle sector. The number of commercial vehicles in China in 2018 reached 1,527 units.


China’s FCV market: Transform from a leading role of policies to sustainable market around 2030

Since incomplete infrastructure, high cost and key technologies will hinder market-oriented promotion at the early stage of the FCV industry, the industry development depends on policies. With the improvement of industrial chain and infrastructure concurrently to that, fuel cell passenger cars will gradually be introduced into the market, driving the FCV industry into the stage of sustainable commercial development.




Areas for Deploying Hydrogen Refueling Stations in China

Establishing a hydrogen society in certain areas in China requires such factors as: 1. Local governments supporting policies; 2. Available hydrogen resource; 3. Local industrial base; 4. Drive from leading enterprises; 5. Good economic environment; 6. Market demand. All these factors should be fully considered when selecting areas for hydrogen refueling stations.






Taking the various factors concerning the establishment of a hydrogen society in certain areas into comprehensive analysis, it is highly possible for Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Zhangjiakou to enter a hydrogen society first, allowing in-advance deployment of hydrogen refueling stations.

未完(字数限制),请接着看《中国氢能汽车产业发展战略研究报告02》